Here’s a shocking revelation: Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda might be inadvertently boosting China’s global influence rather than securing America’s dominance. A year into his second term, a groundbreaking global survey conducted across 21 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) paints a startling picture. While Trump’s rhetoric promises to ‘Make America Great Again,’ the world seems to believe it’s China that’s reaping the benefits. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is Trump’s approach unintentionally reshaping the global order in China’s favor?
The survey, which polled nearly 26,000 respondents from diverse nations including the U.S., China, India, Russia, and several European countries, reveals a striking trend. A majority in almost every surveyed territory—from 83% in South Africa to 50% in the UK—expects China’s global influence to grow over the next decade. Even in the U.S., 54% of respondents share this view. What’s more surprising? Few seem troubled by this shift. Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities view China as a rival, while countries like South Africa, India, and Brazil increasingly see China as an ally. For instance, in South Africa, a staggering 85% view China as either a necessary partner or an ally.
Meanwhile, the U.S.’s standing as a trusted ally is waning. In Europe, just 16% now consider the U.S. an ally, with 20% seeing it as a rival or enemy. Even in India, the only country where a majority still views the U.S. as an ally, support is slipping. And this is the part most people miss: The survey suggests that under Trump, the U.S. is less feared by adversaries like Russia, while allies in Europe feel increasingly alienated. For example, Russians now view the EU as a greater adversary than the U.S., and Ukrainians are turning to Brussels, not Washington, for support.
China’s rise isn’t just about perception—it’s about tangible expectations. Most EU citizens believe China will soon lead the world in electric vehicles and renewable energy, sectors critical to the future global economy. In contrast, optimism about the EU’s ability to compete with the U.S. or China is fading, with 46% of Europeans doubting their bloc’s power status—a figure up from 42% in 2024. Many Europeans also fear Russian aggression and a major European war, with 52% supporting increased defense spending.
The authors of the report, including historian Timothy Garton Ash, argue that Trump’s actions—like his intervention in Venezuela and interest in Greenland—signal a preference for fear over love in global politics. But is this strategy sustainable? They warn that Europe risks being marginalized or ignored in this shifting landscape. European leaders, they say, must be both realistic and bold, finding ways to thrive in a multipolar world or risk fading into obscurity.
Here’s the burning question: Is Trump’s ‘America First’ policy ultimately strengthening China’s hand on the global stage? And if so, what does this mean for the future of U.S. leadership? Share your thoughts below—this is one debate you won’t want to miss.
