Tropical Storm Jerry Unleashes Torrential Downpours Across the Leeward Islands – But Here’s Why the U.S. Mainland Is Safe (For Now)
Tropical Storm Jerry is currently drenching the Leeward Islands with intense rainfall, though forecasters confirm it poses no immediate danger to the continental United States. However, there’s a twist: this storm could dissipate unexpectedly at any moment, leaving residents and meteorologists on high alert.
Jerry’s Path and Impact: A Closer Look
Jerry is now tracking northward, gradually moving away from the Leeward Islands. But don’t let its retreat fool you—it’s still saturating parts of the region with relentless rain, some of which is falling at staggering rates of 1 inch per hour or more. That’s enough to trigger flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
Total rainfall projections suggest accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Leeward Islands, with localized pockets potentially seeing even higher totals. Meanwhile, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico aren’t out of the woods yet; they could still experience sporadic heavy rainfall through Saturday.
In Saint Thomas (Virgin Islands), rainfall has already reached 3 to 4.5 inches, and additional downpours are possible. These deluges have knocked out power for roughly 10% of tracked customers in the Virgin Islands as of Saturday morning—a stark reminder of how quickly tropical systems can disrupt daily life.
Coastal areas aren’t spared either. Dangerous surf and rip currents continue to plague parts of the Caribbean, and these hazardous conditions may persist even after Jerry moves farther away.
Where Is Jerry Headed Next?
The storm is expected to drift into the central Atlantic this weekend before taking an unusual eastward turn near Bermuda by late Sunday or Monday. This so-called "dog-leg" maneuver could keep it well away from landmasses—but as any seasoned weather watcher knows, tropical systems are notoriously unpredictable.
Here’s the surprising part: Jerry was initially predicted to strengthen into a hurricane late last week. Instead, it’s remained a tropical storm due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions along its path. Now, forecasters warn it could weaken further or even dissipate entirely without warning.
Another System Brewing in the Atlantic?
While Jerry commands attention, a new tropical wave has emerged midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Early models suggest it might develop further in the coming days—but here’s the catch: it’s expected to curve northward into open ocean, posing no threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.
Controversial Take: Are We Underestimating These Systems?
Meteorologists rely on advanced modeling, but storms like Jerry highlight the challenges of predicting tropical weather. Some argue that climate change is making these systems more erratic—do you think current forecasting methods are keeping pace? Let us know in the comments!
For deeper insights, check out:
- How Hurricane Season Shifts in October
- The Truth About Hurricane Forecast Cones
About the Author:
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com, has tracked extreme weather since 1996. Follow his updates on Bluesky, X (Twitter), and Facebook.
