Here’s a bold claim: mastering Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule might just be the secret sauce to predicting NBA championship contenders. But here’s where it gets controversial—while this rule has historically been a reliable indicator, it’s not a guaranteed ticket to the title. So, what’s the deal? Let’s dive in.
During his legendary Hall of Fame career, Phil Jackson wasn’t just a master of coaching; he was a master of motivation. Managing some of basketball’s biggest personalities while navigating the grueling NBA season, Jackson often relied on clever challenges to keep his players sharp and focused. One of his most enduring legacies is the 40-20 rule, which has become a favorite among NBA fans. The idea is simple yet powerful: if a team reaches 40 wins before hitting 20 losses during the regular season, they’re a serious contender for the championship. And the numbers don’t lie—a staggering 18 of the last 19 NBA champions have met this criterion, with its roots stretching even deeper into NBA history.
Fast forward to the 2025-26 season, and we’ve got three teams officially in the 40-20 club: the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons. But hold on—does this mean they’re locks for the title? Not so fast. While history is on their side, the current odds from major sportsbooks tell a slightly different story. The Thunder remain favorites after their championship win last season, but the Nuggets, Cavaliers, and Celtics are still ahead of the Spurs and Pistons in the rankings. And this is the part most people miss: even if a team doesn’t hit the 40-20 mark, they can still win it all—but they’ll likely have to beat a 40-20 team along the way.
Law Murray, an NBA writer for The Athletic, has done the deep dive on this rule. He points out that only 17 of the 79 NBA champions in history failed to reach 40 wins before 20 losses—that’s just 21.5%. Since the 3-point line era began in 1979, only four teams have won the title without being 40-20 contenders. Murray puts it bluntly: ‘The goal is always to be a 40-before-20 contender. But the next best thing is to be the team that can beat a 40-before-20 contender.’
Take the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, for example. They didn’t hit the 40-20 mark but still won the championship by defeating the Phoenix Suns, who did. The 2006 Miami Heat and 2004 Pistons followed a similar path, proving that while the 40-20 rule is a strong indicator, it’s not the only path to glory.
Now, let’s talk about the teams that didn’t make the 40-20 cut this season. The Nuggets, Cavaliers, and Celtics are still title favorites, but they’re joined by dark horses like the Knicks, Rockets, and Timberwolves. Murray highlights the Celtics’ late-season wildcard in Jayson Tatum’s return from injury, the Knicks’ firepower, and the Rockets’ defensive strength paired with Kevin Durant. Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ 2023 championship and the Cavaliers’ recent dominance can’t be ignored.
But there’s another layer to this: staying under 30 losses by the end of the regular season. Since 1979, only the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2006 Miami Heat have won the title with 30 or more losses. Teams like the 2022 Warriors and 2023 Nuggets managed to finish with 29 losses after hitting the 40-20 mark, but it’s a fine line. For non-40-20 teams, closing the season strong might be their best shot at making a run.
So, here’s the big question: Is the 40-20 rule a golden ticket, or just one piece of the puzzle? And which team—whether they hit 40-20 or not—do you think has what it takes to lift the trophy this season? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments!
