In a move that could shape the future of the Arizona Diamondbacks' pitching staff, the team has inked a minor league deal with right-hander Shawn Dubin—a player whose career has been a rollercoaster of promise and setbacks. But here's where it gets intriguing: Dubin, a 30-year-old with a fastball that once clocked in at 94-96 mph, is now looking to rebound after a season marred by injury and declining velocity. Could this be the fresh start he needs, or is he a risky bet for a team already grappling with pitching depth issues? Let’s dive in.
According to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy, the Diamondbacks and Dubin, a free agent represented by Excel Sports Management, finalized their minor league agreement recently. Interestingly, the deal was initially reached last month, as noted in Dubin’s transaction log on MLB.com. This signing comes at a critical time for the D-backs, who are seeking to bolster a rotation that, while anchored by veteran Merrill Kelly, lacks reliable depth beyond their top five starters.
Dubin’s journey in the majors has been a tale of unfulfilled potential. Drafted by the Houston Astros in the 13th round of the 2018 draft, he’s spent most of his career in their organization, showcasing decent results in the upper minors. His 2024 stint with the Astros was particularly noteworthy, as he logged 45 1/3 innings with a 4.17 ERA and an impressive 23.7% strikeout rate. However—and this is the part most people miss—command has consistently been his Achilles’ heel. In ’24, he walked 12.6% of batters, a flaw that has dogged him throughout his career.
The 2025 season was a mixed bag for Dubin. After dominating in Triple-A with just one run allowed and 14 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings, he was called up to the majors. Yet, his performance was underwhelming: a 5.61 ERA, a diminished 18.9% strikeout rate, and—surprisingly—a sharp drop in his walk rate to 7.2%. The Astros designated him for assignment in late August, and the Orioles scooped him up. In Baltimore, he pitched eight solid innings, allowing only three runs, but an elbow injury sidelined him. More concerning was his fastball velocity, which dipped to 93.6 mph—a red flag for a pitcher who relies on power. Fortunately, imaging revealed no major damage, and Dubin expressed optimism about avoiding surgery.
Here’s the controversial part: While Dubin’s versatility as both a starter and reliever makes him an appealing candidate for a swingman role, his declining velocity and injury history raise questions. Is he a low-risk, high-reward signing, or a player past his prime? The D-backs’ rotation, which includes injury-prone pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka, could certainly use his experience. But can Dubin regain his form and provide the innings the team desperately needs?
Assuming he’s healthy and invited to spring training, Dubin will compete for a spot on a staff that’s short on reliable arms. Re-signing Merrill Kelly was a smart move, but the depth beyond him, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, Rodriguez, and Soroka is thin. Dubin’s extensive experience could be a game-changer—if he can stay healthy and rediscover his command.
What do you think? Is Shawn Dubin a smart pickup for the Diamondbacks, or is this a gamble that won’t pay off? Let us know in the comments below!
